Category: My World

Model for Covid-19 in the US

blog Using some assumptions driven from recent data and current response rate, I have built a fairly simple model to predict the number of COVID-19 cases that will be seen in the U.S.

lopinavir ritonavir price The model starts with Seattle which reported its first case around Jan 21st.  It didn’t go into an emergency state till the end of February.

The model assumes an average rate of infection after the average incubation period.  It also assumes a ratio of local infection and infections that travel to other areas. This leads to the model’s idea of clusters.  When an infection travels to another area, it creates a cluster.  In a cluster, once a certain number of cases are detected, the area typically goes into a state of lockdown and emergency.   The result of this should be a quickly declining spread and stopping of creating of additional clusters. The model assumes a more and more aggressive reaction response, based on recent data where some places when into emergency or lockdown mode after just 4 reported cases.

The further modeling of areas that are in actual or virtual lockdown is the difficult part as there is no clear data on how quickly the spread will stop. 

The model shows that currently there are close to 19,000 people in the US that are already infected.  Most of them were infected in the 1st week of March and thus are starting to show symptoms now. Thus over the next week or so, the number or confirmed cases will rise dramatically from the last reported 2500 or so.

The model estimates that the total number of infected cases will rise to somewhere between 22,000-25,000 after which the transmission will slow down significantly and essentially be contained. It is estimated that this will happen around the second week of April.

Below is a graph of the estimate from the model.

Of course, no one knows exactly what will happen. The model was built was a rather simple, but logical, set of assumptions and was driven by observed data so far in the US and other countries, but this data is what I found on the internet, which in itself is a bit flawed.

Nature

I was in Kentucky visiting friends who took me on a short hike on Berea forest trails. These friends are “bird” people – bird watchers and photographers.  So, on the hike, we would stop often when they heard some bird and they would look up to try and capture a photograph – which I also got into and starting pointing out birds in the canopy of the trees. When I saw them my description limited to “…a small black one there..” or “…a large black one over here…”.  They would look at it and say something like, “…that’s a yellow rumped warbler…” and then my friend would take some pictures with the huge lens attached to his camera.

These are what my “little black birds” really looked like!

They live on a 13 acre farm in rural Kentucky, with a view of a pond and lots of trees and vegetation. When I walked down their stairs to their living room I see five cats looking up at me (they are also “cat” people); in the morning the back yard is full of birds looking for food; in the evening the raccoons come around to their porch and eat all the cat food.

My friend, a close buddy from college, got his first SLR a few years ago and now has become a really good bird photographer.  Just around where he lives, and mostly from his porch itself, he has photographed and identified over 130 different bird species.  Some of these are just magnificent, a few pictures below.

The fact that over 130 species in that area of KY alone was mind boggling – well it turns out there are over 10,000 bird species in the world. Add to that all the different mammals, sea creatures, reptiles and the 10 quintillion insects – and we are reminded how vast the living world of nature is.  Human beings share this earth with all these living creatures and only represent one species out of tens of millions.  While it is no doubt that we are the dominant species in modifying, building creating and overcoming our environment to make it easier for us to live, we still only represent a small fraction of all the co-inhabitants of this earth both in numbers and even in actual mass. 

All this is a constant reminder that humans, representing such a small portion of all living beings, have web no right to destroy the environment, the nature of this world, due to their activities. As Spinoza says, God is Nature and Nature is God. So, let us never forget the environment and our duty to protect it

Action and dharma

Our actions are what define us.  Just thoughts, however good they may be, unless proceeded by action, remain just theoretical.

The philosophical study of action and its motives dates back to Ancient Greece and India.  To be clear, my reference to “action” is intentional action or things that people genuinely do.  

As Aristotle said, in order for a man to perfect his humanity, he must be the best man he can be. To be his manly best, a man not only needed to cultivate proper intentions and an appropriate disposition, but put those intentions into real virtuous action.

In ancient Indian philosophy, the goal of the early portion of the Vedas is action, in particular moral or dharmic.  A human being is defined by his or her actions and the actions are what defines the persons’ dharma.

Even if we aim for virtuous actions, the world has become so complicated that it is hard to know if the action is truly virtuous.  The degrees of freedom between an action and it’s consequence or consequences can be so numerous that it is impossible to know if the action was good. This problem of unintended consequences could have the effect of making almost all actions non-virtuous. So, what is one to do? The only real practical answer is to still act in good faith within one’s cognitive visibility or horizon. Otherwise if we try and analyze too many possibilities it could result in paralysis by analysis.

I personally have always tried to act in a way that is purposeful.  My actions are usually preceded by rational thought and logic, which is somewhat consequential or utilitarian in that I would try and evaluate the course of action by what it can achieve vis a vis other choices.  This has largely been my principle, my dharma and has mostly served me well and it suited my predominantly analytical mindset.

But not too long ago there has been somewhat of a change.  Recently an old colleague asked our college class group for money to help his son’s education, having fallen in difficult times in his career. This was not the first time he had asked, and we all came to know that he has asked other family and friends for money in the past. I thought about this – rationally and logically – and argued against contributing, citing that this has become a ritual and habit of his, that there are better places to put my money, why can’t he send his son to a college within their means and so on and so forth. It all made sense based on the principles that have normally governed my actions.  Then suddenly I contributed. Not out of guilt or coercion, rather it dawned on me that all my analysis was really to serve myself – the only thing that mattered at that time was there was a friend in need and that I could take a small action to help. Period,

Soon after that another incident happened in which an aging family member was raising a fund to support their special needs son so he can live in an appropriate institution.  The immediate analytic assessment was why have they not been planning for this for the last fifty years and so on.  But I stopped short in my tracks and chided myself –  who was I to question their life and their lack of setting enough aside for their son, neither do I know the complete picture and neither am I qualified to judge them.  They have a need and I can help, so I should act, and I did.

The analysis, the justification, the rationalization is sometimes how we attach ourselves to the results or fruits of the action – it seems like we do that more for ourselves, thus in a way it is for selfish means.  While action based on the analysis of the results is clearly still needed in order to achieve certain goals, needs and comforts in life, it was truly liberating to simply act without any analysis, purely on the basis of the need to act, completely without attachment.  I am sure in life there is a balance of the two, which I am yet to figure out. I am not planning on abandoning the dharma that has served me, but the new dharma, if I may call it that, has been satisfying.

Dharma truly is subtle.

Toby Farms

“Second place goes to the team whose silver on their t-shirts shined….”

We had all been up since 6am and were exhausted. The team didn’t win a prize in any of the categories and were disappointed; we just wanted to go home. But, suddenly, our ears perked up – we have silver on our T-shirts?

The announcer continued calling out “..Team 36052, Toby Panthers..”

The kids went wild, Ms. Ebersole literally fell off the stands, I just sat there in disbelief and the Principal Ms. Garner burst out in tears.

First Lego Robotics Team – Toby Farms Intermediate, Chester, PA

It all started in June when i was cleaning my basement and found boxes of old Lego robotics equipment from 4 years ago when i coached my son’s team.  Just donating equipment has minimal impact – it needs to come with human help.  I remember the kids in our district enjoyed the program, but it was one of many choices and opportunities they have, so it was always difficult to see the real impact.  So I decided to try and start a robotics program at a less privileged school district.

Toby Farms Intermediate  is a middle school in Chester, PA, an under privileged, economically disadvantaged community with the same issues that face some of our inner cities. Many kids face difficult family and environmental issues that get reflected in the school and its performance. With lack of resources, despite the efforts of their dedicated staff, significant challenges exist in the school. Ms. Garner is trying to do everything she can to bring new opportunities to the kids – so when she got my email out of the blue, she immediately responded.  It took us several meetings and logistical challenges to finally get the program started in late September. Then my mother fell sick and I left for India.

We finally got going in October – already over 6 weeks behind most teams.  Working with these kids was a completely new experience.  Most had not even touched Lego pieces before.  Every step of the way had logistical issues – from a space to meet, to bussing issues to arranging a computer and so on.  It was difficult to get a consistent group of kids showing up each meeting and thus there was no continuity – but that was all ok, our expectations for the first year was just to give them exposure.

In November, I found myself back in India.  When I was away, we had to cancel meetings as there was no one else to coach.  In December my mother passed away. It was an extremely difficult time for me and I considered stopping the program entirely, but in the memory of my mother, who lived a very selfless life, I decided to put my grief aside and continue with the kids when I returned.

Three days later i broke my hand!

With the holidays and the loss of days due to bad weather, we were down to a few days before the competition.  But the kids stepped up to the plate and the administration and teachers rallied around them with more practice sessions and support. Still we were barely prepared as the competition arrived.

Getting any prize at the competition would have been immensely satisfying but to come in 2nd overall was almost unimaginable. The entire season sounds like a feel good Disney movie script – from the challenging beginning to all the things that went wrong to the beautifully improbable end.

Winning this prize at the competition means a lot more than most people can imagine for the teachers, administrators and most of all for the students of Toby Farms.  They rarely get such achievements to celebrate. It gives a sense of hope and confidence to these kids that they too are good enough and smart enough to compete with others. We hope it gives them the encouragement and excitement to remain inquisitive and try new things.  The entire school is abuzz with excitement right now.

I want to personally thank everyone at PennFLL for giving us the opportunity to participate in the tournament and for their encouragement and support. We look forward to continue to be part of FLL in the City and hopefully give a lot more kids of Toby Farms exposure to this program.

 

Skew Vega

Skew Vega is the exposure of an options portfolio to a change in the implied vol skew, e.g. change in the risk reversal level. While teaching my daughter trigonometry, I realized that using some basic trigonometry, I could easily calculate the Skew vega in the case where there is no functional form (parameterized) volatility surface. Here is a simple and elegant model to calculate the skew vega

Calculating Skew Vega model

The F Train

A tall, extremely skinny young white man – or should I say kid – walked into the subway train today.  He has had long, unkempt hair all the way down to his waist, dirty black sweats and looked quite ragged. Except he has a small chair in one hand and a half size upright bass , with a bow, in the other.

SubwayMusician

He proceeded to put his chair in the middle of the car, sit down and start playing  – with a high degree of intensity, head moving from side to side, hair flowing, his boney fingers moving up and down the fret in rapid action.  He was good – not brilliant, but good – and sure enough caught the attention of many passengers.

After a short 3 minute piece, he got up to a round of applause and put out a baseball cap for donations – very politely, remembering to thank each person.  I have never seen so many people immediately give to a subway musician.  He easily cleared $10.   Then he very methodically picked up chair and bass just in time for the next subway stop, bolted out the door, to the next car up.

I started to do some quick calculation.  A subway train usually has 9-10 cars.  Over a 45 min to 1 hour ride, going from one car to the next, playing just one piece each time – he probably cleared an easy $90 – all cash!

Extrapolate that – say he did this just 4 hours a day (he could not do this in the morning and evening rush hours, and probably mid day quiet hours would not be worth it), working a normal work week, that adds up to about $79,000 a year!  All cash – tax free! That is far more than what many of the people that gave him money make.  That is far more than what a really talented musician would make in a real, full time job!

This kid was not some poor, hard on his luck, down and out struggling musician.  This was a well thought out and planned, orchestrated show.  This kid is actually an entrepreneur, who realized by donning the right look, he can play the sympathy card such that he will make more money that just what his talent would suggest.

Absolutely brilliant – I think we really took us all for a ride.  And in full disclosure, I also gave him $1….

 

P.S. obviously the above is speculative – if he really is a struggling musician trying to make ends meet – I wish him all the best!

 

Drawing by Shivani Jain, my daughter

Occupy Wall Street

If anything I am a liberal – and although I work in Wall Street, I am the antithesis of a typical Wall Streeter (my kids think I should have been born earlier so I could have been a hippie in the 60’s!)

In spite of this I have found it difficult to support the Occupy Wall Street and Occupy XXXX movement so far.

I saw the protestors a few weeks ago in Zucotti Square, and it was somewhat heartwarming to see a peaceful 60’s style protest with them all camped out, singing, dancing etc.  But what was clear to me was that they really did not have a message.  Even their website as of last week said they have no agenda.

I felt I could hand out a bunch of Save the Whales or Stop the Genocide posters and they would happily take them and start waving them around.

Any protest needs a voice, a medium and a clear message.  They seem to have found their voice and have a powerful medium (Facebook, internet etc) but somewhat lack a clear message.

I just read a list of their demands – and again it is not cohesive with a clear outcome – but more like a jumble of grievances that have been jammed together.   And many make no sense at all.

OccupyWS

For example they want open borders so everyone can travel freely and they also want minimum wage set to $20.  How is that going to work?  There will be a mass influx of people into the US and even if the legal minimum wage is $20, the illegal wages will drop like a rock down to $3-$4 an hour.

They want to forgive all mortgage debt, credit card debt, personal loans etc. Why is rewarding individual fiscal irresponsibility a responsible or economic beneficial act? Forgiving all mortgage debt basically means doing away with all real estate lending altogether and home prices will fall by over 80%. The financial system will crash and people will lose their bank deposits en mass.

So to be a credible movement, they need to develop a clear message with achievable solutions and measurable outcomes. If you look at recent movements, like the anti-corruption in India or the protests in the middle-east, they had fairly clear, focused objectives.

However saying all this, there is an interesting change evolving.   Today I have read at least three main street media articles on the movement and in each of these the authors state what the movement is all about.  The authors didn’t actually get this from the protestors, but took the liberty of interpreting what they are seeing and translated this into clear messages. So while a movement normally starts with a purpose, it seems like this one may have started with just a voice and a medium and now their message is being defined elsewhere! This to me is truly fascinating and may actually convert this movement into something with legs – as opposed to something that will disintegrate into nothing.